JERK Report #14 If my business were in trouble, I'd know.

New here? Jerk is a physics term — the rate of change of acceleration. I've been tracking derivatives of business signals since the 90s. Jerk sees furthest ahead. Learn more about the framework →

If my business were in trouble, I'd know.

Most of us as owners or leaders believe this.

It's not arrogance. It's experience. You've been running this thing for years. You know what it feels like when something's off. But things are crazy lately.

And knowing what something feels like is a position read.

When did you last look at one of your core business assumptions and ask: where did I get this? And would I still choose it today?

Not your strategy. Your assumptions underneath it.  

Things like:

• My best clients find me through referrals.

• My team knows what I expect.

• My best salesperson is irreplaceable.

• My pricing reflects what the market will bear.

• My category is stable enough that I have time.

These aren't beliefs you decided. They're beliefs you inherited — from experience, from the way things worked, from what used to be true.

The problem isn't that they're wrong.

The problem is that you haven't checked how those are holding up.

 Every assumption has a position.

Referrals are my primary channel is a position. You can read it at a glance.

But what's the velocity? Are referrals arriving at the same rate as twelve months ago — or slower? Is the slowdown itself accelerating?

However, is that acceleration or deceleration increasing or decreasing, or has it changed direction? That fourth signal, the jerk, is where your early warning and navigation signals come from.

By the time something feels like trouble, you've already passed through velocity and acceleration. You're reading the headline after the story has moved on.

 The businesses that navigate well don't have better instincts, they have better instruments. Sailors today use radar, not sextants. Both were good tools. Only one is the right tool now.

If you haven't updated your assumptions since before AI started answering your customers' questions before they call you then you're running on a map from a different terrain.

If one of your assumptions is my customers can still find me the way they always have — through search, through ads, through word of mouth online — the landscape underneath that one is moving faster than most owners realize.  

That's exactly what this Thursday's workshop covers.

Be in the Answer — AEO Workshop Thursday, May 21 · 12:00–2:00 PM ET · Live on Zoom · $297 Recording included.

We'll walk through a real AEO Landscape Report end to end — the questions your customers are asking AI, what it's saying back, and the gap between the two.

You'll leave knowing exactly where you stand. And what to do about it.

[Save your seat →  https://www.designrosetta.com/aeo-workshop-be-in-the-answer ]

Best wishes,
Rose Thun