It's not just tariffs

This is a look at what's driving equipment pricing and lead time volatility — and why it's not going back to normal.

This is for anyone buying equipment, supplies, or materials for their business — or just trying to understand why everything costs more and takes longer than it used to.

You heard about tariffs. You budgeted for tariffs. Then the most recent quote came in higher than the tariff math suggested.

That's because tariffs are just one layer.

Here's what else is moving:

• Trade policy — tariffs are back and broader, plus export restrictions on microchips and "Buy American" mandates shifting supply chains.

• Shipping — Red Sea attacks pushed traffic around Africa. Panama Canal drought limited crossings. Containers that cost $2,000 in 2019 still run $4,000+ on some routes.

• Chip allocation — semiconductors aren't "short" like 2021, but AI demand means your laptop order waits in line behind data centers.

• Conflicts — Ukraine and Taiwan tensions touch titanium, neon gas, nickel, palladium and even fertilizer. Risk premium is baked into anything chip-dependent.

• Currency — dollar swings change import math overnight. A 10% move can erase your margin or your savings.

• Demand spikes — Windows 10 end-of-life is pushing refresh cycles. Back-to-school and fiscal year-end create predictable crunches.

Any one of these would cause fluctuations. All of them together? That's the market now.

This is volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) — all at once. And even if your business doesn't import anything directly, it still reaches you. Your laptop costs more. Your office furniture takes longer. Your vendors pass their increases to you. Your raspberries cost $8.

The ripple reaches everyone.

We keep waiting for "normal" to come back.

This is normal now.

The businesses that manage it well aren't predicting the future. They're just paying attention sooner.

You can't control it. But you can see it coming.

Next step

Come build your own tool to better forecast with me. I'm hosting a free lunch-and-learn this Thursday, Feb 13. Sixty minutes. You'll leave with the prompts, the project template, and a tracking log you can start using that day.

No pitch. Just the method.

Register here — fewer than 10 spots left.

TL;DR: Tariffs get the headline, but shipping disruptions, chip allocation, global conflicts, currency swings, and demand spikes are all hitting at once. This is volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) — the new normal. You can't control it, but you can see it coming sooner.